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A ledger of what AI costs and returns

Nobody has a line item
called trust.
Everybody pays for it.

Twenty years taking cost and time out of transaction-heavy industries — US mortgage and property management, industrial safety, B2B software, Indian real estate.

What gets published here is mostly first-party, and it includes the entries that did not work.

Standing balances

Verified weekly

89%

of organisations use AI in at least one function

McKinsey, Aug 2026

37%

can attribute any EBIT impact to it

McKinsey, Aug 2026

6%

report it mattering to the bottom line

McKinsey, Aug 2026

63%

AI adoption among firms with digital foundations, against 16% without

World Bank, Jul 2026

~70m

frontier agent horizon at 80% reliability, not the 12h headline

METR, May 2026

Most recent entry

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ENTRY 0066 min

Sixteen Percent

On why the AI question in emerging markets isn't about AI

A World Development Report background paper, published at the end of July, went looking at 1,563 companies across 83 countries, all of them drawn from IFC's private-equity and venture portfolio — the kind of firm…

emerging marketstrust economics

Earlier

ENTRY 0055 min

The Trust Deficit Premium

Why the same technology is worth more here than there

Nobody has a line item called trust. Everybody pays for it.

trust economicsemerging markets
ENTRY 0045 min

Eighteen Megabytes

What a spreadsheet actually costs

There was a file. It was an Excel model, it was about eighteen megabytes, and it produced the rent and renovation report for a US residential property portfolio worth a couple of hundred million dollars.

unit economics
ENTRY 0035 min

The Job Split in Two

I expected agentic AI to kill the broker. Here's the number that corrected me.

Going into last year's launch I had a view, and I held it fairly confidently. If the AI could handle discovery, eligibility, availability, documentation and follow-up — which it could — then the channel partner was…

ai and labour
ENTRY 0026 min

What Would Count as Evidence

The economists say they're flying blind. Operators don't get that option.

In July, more than two hundred economists put their names to a public statement about artificial intelligence. Sixteen of them were Nobel laureates. The chief economists of OpenAI and Anthropic signed it. So did…

unit economicsmeasurement
ENTRY 0015 min

The Constraint Ledger

A method for finding what your business does only because attention used to be expensive

Most AI strategy starts with the wrong question. "Where can we use AI" produces a list of use cases, and a list of use cases produces pilots, and pilots produce the 89-37-6 funnel McKinsey reported in August —…

method

The accounts

Trust economics

What it costs to make a stranger believable, and where that cost sits in the accounts.

Emerging markets

Why the AI question in low-digitisation economies is rarely about AI.

Unit economics

What deployments actually cost and return, published with the numbers.

AI and labour

Which half of a job moves to the machine, and which half does not.

Measurement

What would count as evidence that any of this worked.

Method

Frameworks and procedures, with their limitations stated.

The dispatch

A fortnightly note with the numbers attached.

What changed, what became unsafe to quote, and the lines worth using on a stage. Every figure carries its source and the date it was fielded.

Fortnightly. No sales email, and unsubscribing takes one click.